Some thirty years ago (31,to be precise) I wrote a story for the Sherman Sentinel called “Double Agent”. I intended it as a spoof. Its hero was someone I named Arnold Zwischen, which in German means “between”. I portrayed him as the smallest boy in his school class, being constantly victimized by two rival separate equal-opportunity gangs of bullies who enjoyed watching their respective leaders give him knuckle rubs, arm twists, and finger bending exercises whenever they could catch him. One day in the bathroom (he had been in a stall with his feet up out of sight, hoping to be overlooked) he happened to overhear the leader of one gang planning to organize an ambush of the other gang. It was to take place that afternoon after school in the playground. After he had stopped shaking and had a chance to digest the information, his first thought was that this would be a win-win. He would have the good fortune to have a ringside seat at the humiliation of one or the other group, both his nemeses. His second thought was that this would be little consolation for the additional torture he would surely be subjected to by the losers, as they attempted to compensate up for their humiliation. His third, and most productive thought was that there might yet be a way to turn this bit of foreknowledge to his personal advantage. So he approached the leader of the gang due to be ambushed and revealed the details of where and when this was scheduled to happen. This was greeted with skepticism, but no immediate knuckle rubbing. He then sought out the leader of the aggressor gang with the news that somehow their proposed victims had managed to become aware of the proposed attack, and planned to be not only on the alert but in possession of an array of defensive weaponry including baseball bats and even (according to rumor) brass knuckles. Again the news he was received skeptically, but again there was no immediate physical mistreatment. And at the appointed hour at the designated place he was pleased to watch from the distant sidelines as the opposing forces strutted about at a respectful distance from each other, without offering to actually engage. The leaders of each gang managed to thank Arnold dismissively afterward, telling him offhandedly to “keep his eyes open” and report any future plans he might become aware of, and there was an unannounced moratorium on arm twistings and finger bending. Arnold decided then and there on his career.

He had also discovered a basic truth about leaders : their power can only be exercised within a framework of generally accepted rules. Those rules must exist by general consent. A smart leader knows that for the balance of power to be maintained there must be an accepted power structure. He must tolerate some form of opposition. Elimination of all opposition would be as fatal as defeat, for it would eliminate a large portion of the audience before which he can strut and therefore the (manageable) tension that permits him to strut as everyone’s protector. Strutting is after all the basic goal of any power struggle, strutting before one’s own troops as well as before the enemy. The old (pre-coup) order must therefore to some extent be preserved, though with roles carefully reversed. And the new leader must be careful not to go too far, into unknown territory where results become unpredictable. Advance knowledge of the other side’s deadlines and redlines is therefore invaluable. The bluff necessary to attract and keep one’s followers must not be allowed to ignore the danger of overreach. If everyone is aware of everyone else’s plans, the situation is at its most stable. Judgments can be made most safely when your opponent’s redlines are clearly known. This lesson has since Los Alamos been reinforced by the existence of Armageddon waiting in the silos, ready to respond to any nervous or itchy or deranged trigger finger.

So Arnold, in my spoof, went on to found a company called AXX (Arnold’s Double Cross) whose services could be engaged by anyone from a neighborhood storekeeper worried about being put out of business by a price war with an incoming chain to a World Power worried about just how far its provocations will be tolerated before escalation took over. An AXX client, in exchange for divulging his own plans would get matching information about his adversary. Both sides — both clients — would be aware that Arnold was playing a double game and as a result the world became a safer place.

Now, thirty years later, I am beginning to wonder whether my “spoof” was such a spoof after all. Julian Assange and Edward Snowden and unbelievably powerful computers and cleverer and cleverer hackers and decryptors and more motivated whistle-blowers are beginning to put Arnold’s belief to a real-world test. International aggression requires a lot of planning. Strategies must be coordinated ahead of time and many groups must be clued in so they will be ready to act when the signal is given. Successful action requires reliable communication, and such communication today requires that communication be both secure and quick, and this means one must use electronic signals. These, in their travels, whether through wires or optic cables or free-range in cyberspace, are today increasingly interceptable and decryptable, and the interceptors and the decryptors have so far easily maintained their technological lead over the defenders of privacy. This seems to be irreversible, and, were AXX to have been a real company, it would have been a fatal blow. The service that my fictitious Arnold offered for a fee is now more and more available to anyone with some computer smarts and some relatively cheap equipment. The only difference is that while Arnold guaranteed equal disclosure to both sides, in today’s spy world the extent of the sharing is uncertain. This very uncertainty though, in the light of the finality created at Los Alamos, may simply serve to reinforce the power of the idea.

Arnold is now retired He is living on a piece of land as near as he could find to the exact center of the United States, as far removed from any large city and any missile silos as possible, watching the oceans and the winds rise and tending his garden and hoping for the best. He sends his regards.